Jalandhar(26/04/2024): Indian policymakers may need to assess the merits of more realism in their approach to world affairs. To a great extent, this is a compulsion forced on them by global developments, increasing nationalism across geographies is contributing to a more transactional view of international relations. The primacy being given to trade and connectivity to shape choices strengthens these trends. An unabashed America first and muscular china dream are setting the tone. In any case, russia’s focus has long been narrower than that of the soviet union. But even a Europe with a growing fortress mentality is struggling to find the right balance between its interests and values. As for japan, its continued caution speaks for itself. India has little choice but to do in rome as romans do. Indeed, it can do that really well and perhaps even find new opportunities in the process.
The expansion of india’s engagement with the world should be seen as something deeper than just ambition. The approach of ‘ sabka saath, sabka vikas, sabka vishwas’ is as relevant to foreign policy as to the domestic one. It should articulate a fundamental desire to engage the world more comprehensively.
The international community has much more riding on india than just economic gains. Its performance will determine whether sustainable development goals targets are achieved, climate change challenges are addressed, disruptive technologies are adopted, global growth is balanced and accelerated and a larger pool of talent is made available.
Central to that exercise will be the ability to deliver a credible make in india programme that can contribute to more resilient global supply chains. No less significant will be the deployment of emerging and greener technologies on a scale that make for a global difference.
The cold war and the rise of political islam. They combined to precipitate the break up of the soviet union, as event of great consequence for india. The second half saw india come to terms with these changes and more. It fundamentally reshaped india’s ties with the US, even as a new power rose in the east with global repercussions. But it is not just the world that is changing, so too are Indian capabilities, aspirations and priorities.
The achievement of sustainable development goals can be for india what the millennium development goals did for china. Quite apart from its growing prominence, the world is today required to come to terms with this changing india. The key question pertaining to us reflect the global rebalancing underway. Will the world continue to define india, or will india now define itself. India is today on a voyage of self-discovery and the lessons of awadh are its surest compass in that quest.
For two decades china had been winning without fighting, while the US was fighting without winning. It was even more about economic growth, political influence, and quality of life. As a result, along the way, America lost its famous optimism.
What can india do to advance its goals in this disrupted world much of that would depend on its handling of the two principal actors the US and china. This is not the first occasion when india faces such a predicament. India went through the cold war maintaining india’s independence in policymaking amidst all its complexities. Far from being a linear exercise, india made the adjustments required on stressful occasions. After the Chinese attack in 1962, it turned to the US to the extent of asking for air cover. In 1971, presented with the prospect of a US-china-Pakistan axis and a looming Bangladesh crisis, it concluded a virtual alliance with The USSR . whenever crises receded, india went back to the middle path. As Russia weakened and china rose, a new binary prospect appeared in the making. The era after the indo-US nuclear deal of 2005 showed how excessive caution lost the chance to make more than incremental gains.
What the US and china are doing to each other is difficult enough. But what their behavior will do to the rest of the world is even more impactful. The reality is that the US may have weakened, but china’s rise is still far from maturing. And together, the two processes have freed up room for others. In fact, their mutual dynamic may well drive multipolarity faster. The beneficiaries could well be middle powers. Those who already have prior advantages like Russia, france and UK will get a new lease of life. Some like india can aspire to an improved position. Others like germany would increase their weight through collective endeavors.
The global financial crisis of 2009 is a telling example where neither china, the rising power, nor the US the one yielding ground, fully appreciated at that time the enormity of the tipping point. Financial instruments, displays of strength and connectivity projects have provided opportunities to assert power without physically clashing with competitors.
The US for example remains the world’s technological leader by a long stretch. But while behind on this score, china has used its financial and trading muscle to carve out for itself the number two slot. Europe is highly regarded for its industrial strength and quality of products . Russia has summoned up its longstanding capabilities and by sheer willpower reinvented itself as a key player. So, what is the global hierarchy of power is no longer an easy question to answer. Because it has so many facets and is played out more locally we are back to the matrix of many sides many players, many games.
Keeping that in mind india has to carefully navigate the near future whose contours are starting to define themselves. Leading nations, not just the US and china, will be surely more nationalistic and create space for others. Power distribution will continue to spread and multipolarity will accelerate. But greater players will not mean better rules, probably quite the opposite. As new capabilities and domains rise, global rules will struggle to keep pace. These development will pose challenges to a rising power like india that would definitely prefer greater predictability. But if it can handle the uncertainty, its rise can also be faster. At various levels of global politics, balances of power will be sought and often achieved. Loose and practical arrangements of cooperation will proliferate across geographies. Some will be composed of the like minded, others more opportunistic, and still more a mix of the two. Regional politics and local balances will gain importance. India will have to engage a broader set of partners more creatively. The transactional bazaar will bring together frenemies, grappling with the compulsions of globalization. Many will use the newer techniques of finance, connectivity or technology. India will need to find adequate responses, nationally where possible or in partnership, where required. Each of these issues is a challenge in itself and their matrix will determine india’s future in a volatile world.
India could rise in an incremental way, as it was hitherto wont to do, hoping to play a balancing role as new equations came into play. To some extent, Indian hesitations of playing a leading role derive from its recollection of formidable powers like the US and USSR. But china has shown that a developing society, albeit of a large size and dynamic economy, can start to assume that responsibility. India could well follow in its footsteps, obviously at its own pace. That is in fact the calculation or perhaps even hope in many quarters.
A flatter world has been beneficial to india as its rise has been welcomed by many entrenched powers. The American interest in working with india has been evident for two decades and has now further accelerated. Russia remains a privileged partner with whom geopolitical convergence is a key consideration even in shifting circumstances. After brexit a more uncertain Europe has also developed a growing interest in india as a force of stability and growth in asia. China for its part sees india as inherent to the rise of asia and the larger rebalancing of the power distribution. The expansion of japan’s concerns and interest has created the basis for a completely different quality of ties. Countries of asia especially in the ASEAN and the indo-pacific, visualize merits in india’s ability to shape a more multipolar asia. The other extended neighbourhood in the gulf has also welcomed the return of india to its region. India has retained its traditional constituencies of support in Africa and the rest of the political south. As the power differential vis-à-vis the world narrows, collaboration possibilities have expanded. If the world has developed stakes in india’s prominence the latter in turn can utilize that sentiment to the fullest.
Improving economic and political prospect is the necessary condition to contemplate india’s rise in the world order. Sufficiency requires a favourable environment as well as the leadership and judgement to take advantage of it. The right strategic calculations require a proper comprehension of the transformation in the international landscape. Assessing its contradictions accurately at the global and regional level opens up opportunities for progress. At its heart right now is the dynamic between the US and china. But also relevant are the determination of Russia, the choices of japan and the durability of Europe. The loose coalition of developing states will play some part, although it increasingly differentiates on issues of concern. And as multipolarity grows and discipline erodes, it is really sharper regionalism that can produce outcomes beyond the control of major powers. Multilateralism may well take a backseat as rules and norms come under greater scrutiny and the consensus among the permanent five weakens.
In this world of all against all, india’s goal should be to move closer towards the strategic sweet spot. The indo-US nuclear deal of 2005 was symbolic of repositioning which helped accelerate india’s rise in the global order. The coronavirus pandemic may well be a further complicating factor. But as the global architecture opens up and india’s own capabilities strengthen, it has greater freedom than in the past to organize its rise. China as the first non-western power to seriously rise in the post 1945 era, has drawn on its cultural heritage to project its personality and shape the narrative. It is logical that india too should follow suit.
We have seen a return of old empires like Russia, iran and turkey through greater energy and influence in proximate regions. West asia is in ferment, even by its exceptionally volatile standards. The centrality of ASIAN to asia is not what it is used to be. Demographic and economic trends in Africa are giving that continent a greater salience. South America is once again a battleground for ideas.
Technology, connectivity and trade are at the heart of new contestations. In a more constrained and interdependent world, competition has to be pursued perforce more intelligently. The global commons is also more in disputation as multilateralism weakens. Even climate change is a factor, contributing to geopolitics by the opening of an arctic passage. And the corona pandemic has been a wild card beyond all expectations. In short, change is upon us as never before.
The Russian relationship may have defied odds by remaining incredibly steady. But it is the exception, not the rule. Japan has now become an important factor in india’s calculations. The rediscovery of Europe is also underway with france now a critical strategic partner. The gulf has been bridged in an extraordinary effective manner. ASEAN has grown closer and australia’s relevance is more apparent. A strong sense of the extended neighbourhood is apparent. Africa is the focus of development assistance and opening of new embassies. Diplomatic activities our outreach extends from south America and the Caribbean to the south pacific and baltics.
Equally significant is a willingness to shape key global negotiations, such as in paris on climate change the investment of greater resources in development partnerships with countries of the south is also noteworthy. And not least the manner in which we have approached our own region and the extended neighbourhood has resonated beyond.
However, the facts remains that even after seven decades of independence many of india’s borders remain unsettled. In the economic sphere, we may look good when benchmarked against our own past. It seems a little different when compared to china or south asia. So what really matters is to develop a sharp awareness about our own performance. There is no getting away from it in a multipolar world. This is a game best played on the front foot, appreciating that progress on any one front strengthens that on all others.
At a time when most are pursuing interest narrowly. It is to india’s benefit that it takes a more expansive view of the world. On the major international issues of the day such as terrorism, maritime security or connectivity, there is now a considerable meeting of minds. This relationship has increasingly made itself felt in global affairs, especially after 9/11. The European union, UK and The US are among the top economic partners and sources of capital, technology and best practices that are necessary for india’s modernization. The maturing of ties is also reflected in two- way flows with Indian companies now emerging as significant foreign investors in western economies. The another option that Europe has long represented on strategic issues has grown in importance. These accumulated development have today created high degree of comfort between india and the west.
It can be asserted with some confidence that a combination of economics, technology and demographics will draw india and the west closer, the real difference would be made by politics and values. India and the west must fit into each other’s scheme of the world. Envisaging india’s growth as a strategic development in the larger western interest is a starting point. Such thinking has become more accepted in the US and japan, it still has to develop more in Europe. From an economic perspective it would also be in the western interest that india emerge more rapidly as a source of greater global demand and supply. The salience of india’s human resources to the global economy will only grow with time. Its market economy and responsible governance makes it a safe partner when it comes to contract designing and manufacturing. India’s multi- faith society is also an enormous contribution to global stability. india has both the ability to work confidently with the west when required and differ with it when its interest so demand. Afghanistan, iran, Russia, climate change, connectivity or terrorism are some relevant examples. Nor did india hesitate to chart its own course when occasion arose in regions like Africa.
There are two imponderables which could create a very different scenario in asia. One is the future posture of japan bringing back into the strategic calculus a major economy with enormous technological capabilities. The second is the fluidity in the Korean peninsula one that could overturn longstanding assumptions. Both were earlier impacted by the rising power of china. But now they could also respond to a news American posture. For india, the first will have direct consequences, but second would not be irrelevant. Between them, we could well see influences from east asia that go beyond those of china. Much closer Indian relations with the US have made it a facilitator rather than an obstacle to Indian-japan ties. The ability of india, japan and the US to work together in a trilateral framework has been one of the novel elements of the changing asian political landscape.
Investment and trade flows between ASEAN and india have been steadily growing with Singapore as the principal hub. Businesses from this region occupy a prominent position in the Indian economy across a broad range of activities, spanning telecommunications and aviation to logistics, road building, industrial parks and finance. On their part, Indian companies have a presence in energy, commodities, infrastructure and banking.
India’s experience westwards is less positive for reasons that the world knows well. Nevertheless the chabahar port project with iran and the sea access it can provide for Afghanistan represent important openings. Iran’s considerable potential as a transit corridor to Eurasia is worth exploring. So too is the larger international north-south transport corridor that can facilitate transportation to Russia and Europe as well as the Ashgabat agreement that connects the Indian ocean to central asia. Development in the gulf and west asia may provide still more options in the days ahead.
For india, it will be an important elements of its relationship with china and its partnership with the west. News possibilities could be opened up with Russia, whose maritime interests may grow with the viability of arctic commerce. The importance of the indo-pacific to ties with japan, ASEAN and Australia clearly cannot be underestimated.
By going the extra mile to provide medicines to more than 120 nations, two-thirds of them as grant, a clear message of internationalism was sent. Four medical missions were mounted in the same period to the Maldives, Kuwait, Mauritius and Comoros. In doing so, india not only established its credentials as the pharmacy of the world but also as a health security responder. Equally, what is evident is that greater Indian capacities will make themselves felt on world affairs as part of a conscious strategy.
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